The hottest products rose in the second quarter, a

2022-10-22
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Chemical stocks rose in the second quarter, benefiting from energy conservation and emission reduction

yesterday, the chemical sector continued its strong trend, and several stocks rose the most in the session: anada, Chengxing chemical and chlor alkali chemical (600618) rose by the limit and closed at a new high, among which anada came out of the new high since its listing; Yaxing chemical (600319), Liuguo chemical (600470) and Yantai Wanhua (600309) increased by more than 7%, and all of them rose to new highs in the session; In addition, several stocks such as INET, Tianli hi tech (600339) and sanaifu (600636) rose to new highs

at present, the overall valuation level of the chemical industry sector is at a historical low, but the valuation level of the basic chemical industry sector has risen from 40.7 at the end of last year to 46.0 at present, slightly higher than the historical median

looking forward to the future, we believe that under the background of the bottoming out and recovery of the macro-economy in the second quarter, the high volatility of crude oil prices, and the uncertain trend of downstream demand, energy conservation and emission reduction will continue to be one of the main lines of industry development, and the successive launch of the "12th Five Year Plan" for sub industries will qualitatively change the fundamentals of ministries and branches and change market expectations. The specific investment ideas are as follows

continue to benefit from energy conservation and emission reduction

1. Crude oil prices in the second quarter showed a high volatility pattern

at present, the driving force for the sharp rise in oil prices has been basically overdrawn, and there are no factors to suppress oil prices in the short term. Therefore, we believe that crude oil prices in the second quarter will be dominated by high volatility

2. The 12th Five Year Plan for sub industries has been issued successively, which will change the industry fundamentals

according to the requirements of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee on transforming the development mode, the petroleum and chemical industry needs to pay special attention to and solve the problems of resources, environment, technology and repeated construction during the "12th Five Year Plan". In this context, the successive introduction of the 12th Five Year Plan for chemical industry and various sub industries will change the fundamentals of sub industries and bring investment opportunities in the secondary market

3. The investment opportunities brought by energy conservation and emission reduction deserve continuous attention.

the Ministry of industry and information technology announced on March 28 the four binding indicators of China's industrial energy conservation and emission reduction during the 12th Five Year Plan period and this year; At the same time, the Ministry of industry and information technology requires all localities to study and put forward the target of reducing energy consumption of industrial added value produced by advanced semiconductor factories in Jinan this year. Therefore, energy conservation and emission reduction will be one of the main lines in the development and structural adjustment of the chemical industry, which deserves continuous attention

4. The trend of downstream demand is uncertain

in order to control inflation, countries shrink money, which has a micro impact on the capital demand of enterprises; In addition, the appreciation of RMB has affected the sales of some export-oriented enterprises. We have observed that the demand of major downstream chemical industries, such as agriculture, real estate, automobiles, household appliances, textiles, household chemicals and other fields, is uncertain

5. The price of chemical products is at a high level on the whole, but the profit is clear, the division of tasks and the completion deadline are generally

on the whole, the plastic, chemical fiber and petrochemical product chain is at a historical high, the prices of polyurethane, rubber and two alkali products are at a historical median level, and the prices of agrochemical products are at a historical low. On the whole, the profitability of the two alkali and polyurethane industrial chains is near the historical median, and the profitability of chemical fiber, agrochemical and coal chemical products is at the historical low level

the price rise of some chemical products

1. The reduction of supply drives China to be still in the deep development stage of industrialization, informatization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization. The price rise of industrial products

under the premise of uncertain demand trend, we can find industries with tight production capacity supply and slightly increased demand that bring greater flexibility to product prices. Products or industries that can be selected include:

I. MDI. In the next two years, the industrial MDI capacity growth rate is lower than the demand growth rate; Although demand is slightly weak in the short term, a strong recovery in demand is a high probability event in the medium and long term. The corresponding target is Yantai Wanhua

II. Propylene oxide. The logic of this product is similar to that of MDI (the article is from universal polyurethane), but its boom period will be shorter than that of MDI. The capacity expansion of the industry itself is slow, coupled with the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the global supply pattern, the product price may rise with the strong recovery of downstream polyether and other industries in the next year. Corresponding to the target Binhua Co., Ltd. (63. Basic configuration of experimental machine 01678)

III. methyl ethyl ketone. At the beginning of March, the price of methyl ethyl ketone itself was at a historical high, but the demand was shrinking. In the middle of the month, the Japanese earthquake affected Maruyama's production capacity, resulting in a global supply shortage. The rise or maintenance of product prices in the future mainly depends on the progress of Japan's capacity recovery and the degree of downstream demand recovery

2. Industries with active policies or benefiting from the 12th Five Year Plan

at present, improving industry concentration, improving industry refinement and developing new materials are the general direction of the development of the chemical industry. According to the information we have, the policy area is relatively active, and the industries that may be affected by the introduction of the 12th Five year plan include:

first, pesticides. The general direction of the industry is to eliminate backward production capacity through mergers and acquisitions, improve industry concentration, and improve the technical content and added value of products

second, calcium carbide. In the next five years, the production capacity of calcium carbide industry will remain stable, and the new cash production capacity will gradually replace the existing high-energy and low consumption production capacity. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the price of calcium carbide may continue to be strong. Chlor alkali enterprises with the ability to integrate coal, electricity and calcium carbide may benefit from this

third, civil explosion. During the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, under the guidance of industrial policies, the number of civil explosive production enterprises was reduced from 405 to 146, and the industrial concentration was significantly improved. (source: Global polyurethane) during the 12th Five Year Plan period, M & A integration will still be the main theme of the industry. The Ministry of industry and information technology plans to continue to promote the integration of civil explosive industry during the 12th Five Year Plan period, reduce the number of production enterprises from the current 150 or so to less than 50, and take listed companies as the leader to carry out cross regional integration

fourth, phosphate fertilizer. In order to deal with the overcapacity of the phosphate fertilizer industry, the industry will set a higher entry threshold in the next five years, and the general principle is that there will be no new batches of phosphate fertilizer production capacity

fifth, fluorine chemical industry. Fluorine chemical industry may formulate the 12th Five Year Plan for its sub industry as an independent industry. The resource attribute of the industry is becoming stronger

3, "high-quality main business + new products in line with the development direction of the industry" blue chips

we believe that among the existing blue chips, we can choose companies with excellent main business quality, strong continuous research and development ability, new products in line with the development direction of the industry that are under construction or have been put into production and will contribute to the performance, that is, "high-quality main business + new products in line with the development direction of the industry". Jinfa Technology (600143) is in line with the investment idea

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